We continue with the book by Georg Juritsch, which is a staggering 750+ pages long. We are speaking about Geschichte der Babenberger und ihrer Länder (976-1246), published in Innsbruck with Wagner in 1894.
Friday, October 4, 2024
Juritsch on the Babenberger -- Part II: Markgrave Heinrich I
Juritsch on the Babenberger -- Part I: Markgrave Luitpold I
This is probably going to have to be a multi-part post, since the book by Georg Juritsch is a staggering 750+ pages long. We are speaking about Geschichte der Babenberger und ihrer Länder (976-1246), published in Innsbruck with Wagner in 1894.
The general organization of the work is to go through the individual rulers, though some of them, such as Leopold VI and his son (and final Babenberger) Friedrich have multiple chapters. It is not clear if this is correlated with their importance only; after all, the general state of records improves the closer one moves toward the present.
Before the Babenberger
Refounding the Eastern Marches (976-774)
Monday, September 30, 2024
David Manheim on Underspecified Goals
In a follow-up to the previous David Manheim discussion, a blog-post from 2016/09/29 entitled Overpowered Metrics Eat Underspecified Goals, Manheim analyzes examples of twitter use and startups to get a handle on how goals ought to be formalized, especially when transitioning to a corporate structure — here, Peter Drucker's SMART goals (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Time-bound) versus the BHA goals (Big, Hairy, Audacious) that startups use.
Manheim reminds us that
metrics work because they help ensure that the tasks aligned the intuition of the workers with the needs of the company, create trust between workers and their management, and reduce the complexity of larger goals into manageable steps.
Manheim points out that, in their existing formulation, Goodhart's Law, which probably derived from Donald T Campell's formulation, are at least sometimes false. This follows from the good regulator work of Roger Conant and Ross Ashby, which show an isomorphism between the model of the regulator and the system regulated and which lead to the internal model principle in control theory.
Since Conant's and Ashby's good regulator cannot existing in a process that exceeds modeling complexity, simplified models are targeted by the regulators instead, which can then be exploited.
This means any simplified model used by a regulator can be exploited, especially when the agents understand the model and metrics used. This happens almost everywhere; employees understand the compensation system and seek to maximize their bonuses and promotion, drug manufacturers know the FDA requirements and seek to minimize cost to get their drug approved, and companies know the EPA regulations and seek to minimize the probability and cost of fines. The tension created by the agents is what leads to Goodhart’s theorem; whatever simplifications exist in the model can be exploited by agents.
Manheim now shows how this interacts with the principal-agent problem. [Fn1] Manheim argues that where the story of the individual agent and the bigger story of the cooperative collide, that's too bad for the bigger story.
In companies, the discrepancy between the metrics used and the goal isn’t maximized by the agents: the agents aren’t necessarily against the larger goal, they just pursue their own goals, albeit subject to the regulator’s rules. Goodhart said the correlation doesn’t reverse, it simply collapses.
The outcome is a mismatch between the company's space of possibilities and
the subspace induced by agents’ maximization behaviors.
In other words, even metrics that are aligned well with agents whose goals are understood, they are distorted by the agents whose motives or goals are different than the ones used to build the metric. And because all metrics are simplifications, and all people have their own goals, this is inevitable.
This puts the onus on the model to be as explicit as possible (I think that is what Manheim means with legibility, but I am not 100% sure).
If the model is explicit, game-theoretic optima can be calculated, and principal-agent negotiations can guarantee cooperation. This is equivalent to saying that simple products and simple systems can be regulated with simple metrics and Conant and Ashby style regulators, since they represent the system fully.
Manheim then suggests that Wilson in his discussion of bureaucracy and organizational theory made a useful contribution by replacing the goals with missions (Manheim is persuasive that complexity is often irreducible, thereby curtailing Wilson's other suggestion of how to remedy organizational misalignments.)
[Wilson writes:] "The great advantage of mission is that… operators will act… in ways that the head would have acted had he or she been in their shoes.” But that requires alignment not of metrics and goals, but of goals and missions.
When saddled with unclear goals, metrics begin to take on the role of (self-)justification.
And as Abram Demski pointed out to me, this is an even deeper point; Holmström’s theorem shows that when people are carving a fixed pie, it’s impossible to achieve a stable game-theoretic equilibrium and be efficient too, unless you ignore the budget constraints.
A corporation's solution to this conundrum is
... to make sure people can contribute to growing the size of the pie, making it a non-zero-sum game. Creating this non-zero-sum game to serve as a context for goals is the function of the mission; it’s something that everyone wins by furthering.
To put matters into my own words, missions are supposed to be goal generators.
For Manheim, this is how to turn the old adage from management theory
To motivate a team, you need goals that are clear, and metrics that support them.
into something actionable.
Failure to use metrics well means that motivations and behaviors can drift. On the other hand, using metrics won’t work exactly, because complexity isn’t going away. A strong-enough sense of mission means it may even be possible to align people without metrics.
(This may explain why start-ups and open source projects work.)
The solution may well be to hybridize them, or turn them into a flywheel process.
It makes sense, however, to use both sets of tools; adding goals that are understood by the workers and aligned with the mission, which clearly allow everyone to benefit, will assist in moderating the perverse effects of metrics, and the combination can align the organization to achieve them. Which means ambitious things can be done despite the soft bias of underspecified goals and the hard bias of overpowered metrics.
David Manheim on Goodhart's Law
I was reading Jascha Sohl-Dickstein' 2022-11-06 blog post on how Too much efficiency makes everything worse: overfitting and the strong version of Goodhart's law when I realized that I had never heard of Goodhart's Law before.
The Wikipedia article sent me to David Manheim's 2016 blog-post on the difficulties of measuring Goodhart's Law and Why Measurement is Hard. Manheim points to the triad of "intuition, trust and complexity" and its interaction with measurement. Measurement primarily replaces intuition, but requires trust in the data and cannot adequately overcome complexity.
Manheim has an interesting aside on the discussion between Kahneman and Klein on how effective interventions of the type of "recognition-primed decision making" may beat out measuring, leading to "raw intuition beating reflection", with a link indicating that Kahneman and Klein agree on this being the case for specific interesting situations.
Manheim also notes that Douglas Hubbard offers a general methodology for measuring anything, though this process side-steps the question of whether this can always be done in a timely and cost-effective manner.
... no matter how ‘fuzzy’ the measurement is, it’s still a measurement if it tells you more than you knew before. (Douglas Hubbard, as quoted in Manheim's blog-post)
Manheim points out that the problem of trust that marrs data collection can be reduced by segregating the responsibilities.
Test takers are monitored for cheating, graders are anonymized, and the people creating the test have no stake in the game. Strategies that split these tasks are effective at reducing the need for trust, but doing so is expensive, not always worthwhile, and requires complex systems . And complex systems have their own problems. (Manheim in his post)
The fact that measures summarize complexity without reducing it, and the problems that causes, Manheim proposes to make the failures understandable by another interaction triad.
These failures are especially probable when dimensionality is reduced, causation is not clarified, and the reification of metrics into goals promotes misunderstanding.
Manheim argues that (even in the face of Arrow's theorem proving the absence of any correct metric), models such as those in economics are quickly subjected to dimensional reductions and hyperplane slicing to make simple metrics computable (often even a single function).
For causation, Manheim turns to
Cosma Shalizi’s amazing course notes, when he talks about about modeling causal relationships. One benefit of the type of visual model he explains is that it is an intuitive representation of a causal structure.
(Notice that Manheim already warned about the fact that single causation is often a fallacy.) The example of the factors both direct and indirect that impact the grade in a statistics class show that reducing the class to a grade eliminates the articulation points.
[In Shalizi's example] ... there are plenty of causes that can be manipulated to improve grades: reducing workload will be effective, as will increasing actual learning in the previous course. But if you are only using simple metrics, and which cannot represent the causal structure, it’s irreducible. This is why ... loss of fidelity matters when decisions are made.
Manheim uses (cute) optical illusions to approach the reification problem, discussing the potential for the reification fallacy (at least) for metrics of IQ or wealth. The punchline though is:
What’s harmful is that when we create a measure, it is never the thing we care about, and we always want to make decisions. And if you reify metrics away from the true goal, you end up in trouble when they stop being good measures.
Which is what Goodhart's Law argues, and Manheim now exemplifies:
Investors care about bond ratings, but only because they measure risk of default. It’s only a measure, until you use it to determine capital reserves.
Bank regulators care about capital reserves, but only because it is a measure of solvency. It’s only a measure, until you use it to set bank reserve requirements.
Manheim then points out that this is caused by Stephen Ross' formalization of the solution to principal-agent problems in economics, which are base-payment plus bonus type of systems, which however require measurements to succeed.
The combination of reification and decisions that use a metric which ignores the causal structure will bite you.
Thinking of tests as measuring student achievement is fine, and it usefully simplifies a complex question. Reifying a score as the complex concept of student achievement, however, is incorrect.
For Manheim, Goodhart points out that the absence of any correct metric means that the system will drift to satisfy the mismatch between measure and goal.
Metrics make things better overall, but only occurs to the extent that they are effective at encouraging the true goals of the system. To the extent that they are misaligned, the system’s behavior will diverge from the goals being mismeasured.
Because the collapse of the complexity elides aspects of the system, the resulting measurement will push in unintended directions, be it sensationalism via user engagement at Facebook or racial bias in recidivism in crime statistics.
Manheim argues that another way to see Goodhart's Law is that mapping goals to measurements increases the communicability about complex systems between people, but the inaccuracy of the metric over time causes drift that eventually obfuscates the intended goals.
Saturday, August 31, 2024
Some works of Jean Bodin
Jean Bodin, who is this these days perhaps best known for his musings on Historiography, engaged in problems of religion and tolerance as well. His only posthumously published Conference of the Seven Wise Men on the Hidden Secrets of Sublime Things (Colloquium heptaplomeres de rerum sublimium arcanis abditis) clearly belongs into this category. It's seven speakers represent the views that Bodin was familiar with (summary by ChatGPT 3.5):
Late-Antiquity Military Thinking
In the form of the Stratagems of Polyanus and the writings of Aneas Tacticus.
Post Roman Migration into England
A summary article for a Nature article in The Past from 2022.
Van Houts on Early Norman Poetry
Elisabeth Van Houts, as so often, offers an exciting interpretation of Jezebel and Semiramis, two 10th century Norman poems that may be related as critiques of Emma of Normandy.
Economic History of the Fugger
This post just notes the important research of Aloys Schulte, Die Fugger in Rome, from 1904 (also available on Google Books).
Notes on Pacific Warfare
There have been many questions about what causes warfare to develop, esp in pre-state societies, and to what extend it differs from raiding; how lethal it is; and how important the symbolic bravery on display is for the standing within the community.
I recently ran into the following work on Pacific warfare,
Raid, Retreat, Defend (Repeat): The Archaeology and Ethnohistory of Warfare on the North Pacific Rim--by Herbert D.G. Maschner & Katherine L. Reedy-Maschner.
The work points out that warfare for strict resource control was less common, and that its impact on development of the North Pacific Rim in the end can only be considered formative.
1960s English Pop Art
Having read the autobiography of Pattie Boyd, wife of George Harrison & Eric Clapton, I ran into this website that showcases the famous Birds of Britain project.
Some Notes on the City of Horn
This is some links that have been sitting around for a long time.
The city of Horn was very important during the Protestant Reformation and Counter Reformation. There is a nice history of that city written by my former Church Law professor, Gustav Reingrabner, which one can purchase at the Rathaus or the local bookshop.
This Hungarian Website has a nice view of the city from the Austrian City Atlas. Of course, Horn is on the Schweickert map as well.
In this context, I also ran into this paper on avoiding or even working against the Black Plague in the Wachau of the 1680s.
Monday, June 17, 2024
Odds and Ends from Dinner Conversations
Got a couple of interesting pointers in the last few days that I wanted to pickle.
Christian Marek, Rom und der Orient: Reiche, Götter, Könige, 2023.
The Austrian Broadcasting service's Series on the inner city of Vienna.
Cf. Erbe Oesterreichs 3 and some of its videos (eg Erbe Österreich: Geheimnisse der Wiener Innenstadt (1/3))
Finally, the Flavian Temple of Hispellum that Constantine permitted to be constructed is really most amazing.
Friday, May 17, 2024
Appraising Rosalind Franklin, Science Writing and Women's Contribution to Science
Very intrigued by a host of articles on Nature dealing with Rosalind Franklin.
The Nature EDITORIAL from 25 April 2023 was How Rosalind Franklin was let down by DNA’s dysfunctional team. The story of how the structure of DNA was found is one of team science from which one member was unforgivably excluded.
The editorial reminds of the anti-semitism, the sexism, and the unhappiness that Franklin experienced during her time at King's College in London, which truncated her work at the tail of her stay. Fortunately, she was happier at Birkbeck College. It also reminds readers that the fight over who would get DNA described first, contra Linus Pauling in the US, was a serious motivator.
Then, Matthew Cobb and Nathaniel Comfort in the same issue clarify What Rosalind Franklin truly contributed to the discovery of DNA’s structure. Franklin was no victim in how the DNA double helix was solved. An overlooked letter and an unpublished news article, both written in 1953, reveal that she was an equal player.
The contribution tries to more fairly sketch the complex involvement of the King's College group's researchers and some of the allocation choices, making Franklin more than the supplier of a supposedly decisive X-ray picture.
This in turn lead me down the road of some previous Nature reporting, such as the injustice of science-historiographical reductionism from April 2020: Rosalind Franklin was so much more than the ‘wronged heroine’ of DNA. One hundred years after her birth, it’s time to reassess the legacy of a pioneering chemist and X-ray crystallographer.
The editorial rightfully points out how thinking of Franklin as the wronged party in the DNA discovery once again retracts her role as a woman scientist, under-lighting her many other science contexts and contributions.
Franklin's premature death, combined with misogynist treatment by the male scientific establishment, cast her as a feminist icon. This myth overshadowed her intellectual strength and independence both as a scientist and as an individual.
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
LLM Papers that I have been recommended
These are papers that I have been recommended with their links. Who knows if they are as good for the Humanities as some people think?
- Edward Hu et al's LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of LLMs (Oct 2021).
- The so-called Chinchilla paper. (i.e. Jordan Hoffmann et al, Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models, Mar 2022); also available at Papers with Code.
- Harm DeVries, Go Smol or go Home blog-post discussing the chinchilla paper.
- Lewis Tunstall et al (October 2023), describing the Zephyr model, a smaller LM "attuned to user intent"
- Suriya Gunisekar et al's Textbooks Are All you Need (June 2023) which describes the phi-1 system that uses higher quality tokens to train smaller models that still perform well (plus synthetic data generated by ChatGPT 3.5)
- Dohnmatob et al's Model Collapse Demystified (February 2024) that explains the problem when training sets reuse their own outputs---giving rise to some of the strategies that DeVries discusses in the README of the bigcode-dataset project.
- Nilesh Barla's blog post on how to train a custom embedding LLM model given the Zephyr model to help generate training data (April 2024).
Sunday, May 5, 2024
TEI and Multi-Language Sources
In my ongoing efforts to familiarize myself with TEI and its tools for modeling sources for the Humanities properly, I stumbled upon this discussion by Van Hulle on how to deal with Samuel Beckett's bi-lingualism, as Beckett translates from English to French and back again, authoring in both languages even.
The text at hand is Stirrings Still and Soubresauts, and though it has hardly six pages, Beckett seemed to oscillate between writing it in English or in French. The resulting publication history is complicated too, with an expensive hard-cover edition supposedly preceding the newspaper edition, when in fact it did not.
Again
Spending a lot of time today thinking about repetition (Difference und Wiederholung, in the words of Deleuze) as problems of knowledge representation. The impetus came from a book on Caterina of Medici (Leah Redmond Chang's Young Queens), which in turns uses the Chronicle of Le Murate to tell the story of eleven-year old Caterina getting caught up in the battle between Medici-Pope Clement VII and the Florentine Republic.
As so often, Sister Giustina Niccolini was writing many years past the events, in 1598, about a situation that happened in the summer of 1530. The rough of it was that the Republican council of Florence wanted to use Caterina as a pain point in their negotiations against the Pope, and the nuns of Le Murate, who were sheltering Caterina, wanted to prevent that, fearing that she might get hurt.
So we have all the usual elements, we have goals and plans and scripts. The interesting part is the conflicts, which interrupt these scripts (or just attempt to do so).
Silvestro Aldobrandini, the secretary of the council, goes with his soldiers to pick up Caterina from Le Murate in the Via Ghibellina. At this points, plans made by the council and plans made by the pope and his Spanish supporters have been made and thwarted.
Though the council had placed Caterina there as a guest in 1527 to hold her hostage, they now needed her back for a new plan--to pressure the pope into withdrawing his troops. The nuns refuse to hand her over by refusing to open the door.
Aldobrandini returned later that night to blast the door to splinters (with canons?), thereby foiling the nuns' plan of keeping Caterina safe in the nunnery. So the nuns physically block Aldobrandini and his men.
Trying to block the men from penetrating deeper into the convent, the nuns sank to their knees, then threw themselves to the ground, crying, praying, pleading, and arguing.
--Chang, Leah Redmond. Young Queens: Three Renaissance Women and the Price of Power (p. xii). Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Kindle Edition.
As a quick aside---notice the nightmare of representing this scene, given the plurality of behaviours and the unclear activities (what did they pray? what did they argue), not to mention the loose quantification.
Aldobrandini continues to pursue his goal of pressuring the pope by replanning, but with the nuns bypassed, Caterina becomes his next obstacle, neither going willingly or shutting up.
It is silly to assume that Caterina had no patterns for the scenes that she was making, first arguing to remain at the covenant, and then demanding of the world why she was being submitted to such a violent death (Chang, p. xix). So there are scripts here that elude us and that are prolongued.
Persuading someone is a complex process that may require multiple iterations, some repetition, some novel points, and definitely a good chunk of passage of time. All of this was happening while Aldobrandini was trying to get her on horseback to someplace where she could be used in her role as pressure point. (Chang makes no mention of how that was supposed to work, perhaps her sources did not know either.)
Chang suggests that Aldobrandini must have been swayed, but it is not clear that this is true. Aldobrandini needed Caterina alive, and after chasing the pope's soldiers away, Caterina would most likely return to the covenant, where she had spent the previous three years as hostage. I personally see no giving in when Aldobrandini tells her that she will not come to harm (a dead hostage is a useless hostage) and that he will return her to the covenant within a month's time (her preferred "storage place", as far as the Republican council of Florence was concerned).
Aldobrandini told Caterina that no harm would come to her. He promised to return her to Le Murate within the month. (Chang, p. xix)
At this point, the whole thing turns into a morality tale of sorts. The Medici restoration leads to the execution of counselors and the torture of those that are banished (Chang, p. xix), but Caterina (somehow) manages to intercede for Aldobrandini and get his death sentence commuted to banishment (with or without torture, Chang does not tell us).
This then leads us to some of the meta-historical aspects of this story that Hayden White would have immediately jumped on. Clearly the Le Murate chronicle is not a neutral source. Sister Niccolini emphasizes the connection to the French Queen Caterina to the Medici-funded nunnery (Chang, p. 14), proudly recounts the gifts (Chang, p. xix) received, and the ongoing relationship. In fact, Caterina would petition them to pray for her continuously in 1573 and again in 1583 (Chang, p. 17), as we know from her letters (it is unclear whether Niccolini mentions that as well). By the time Niccolini completed her chronicle, the French Queen had been dead for almost a decade (1589).
With that narrative setup, we immediately have heroes and villains, and the morality tale acquires a structure of perhaps a tragedy for Aldobrandini, or the council? Or perhaps even a comedy from Caterina's point of view? More textual analysis would be necessary to make either of that attribution stick. The nuns clearly wanted to be seen as powerful intercessors, either in their arguing or in their praying.
We therefore need representations that capture these emplotment aspects, the role attributions. Perhaps one might argue that our question of which nun did what is highly misguided. The nuns (and perhaps even the soldiers) function more like the chorus in a Greek theatrical tradition, they as a group embody a sentiment that the author wishes to express.
Monday, January 8, 2024
Atomic Bomb Markers in your Body
(Part of the Great Tab Cleanup)
A BBC report on how bodily radioactivity documents the anthropocene.
Tudor Fertility and Expenses
(Part of the Great Tab Cleanup)
- How Blood problems affected Henry VIII's plans
- Privy Purse accounts of Elizabeth of York, which show Elizabeth Denton on p.99 as recipient of money (arguably the woman who taught the bedroom arts to Henry VIII). [Formally, Nicholas H. Nicholas (eds) (1830), Privy Purse Expenses of Elizabeth of York: Wardrobe Accounts of Edward IV, London (William Pickering)]
Videos on Formal Methods
(Part of the great tab cleanup)
- Bryan Cook on making mathematical proofs a business at Amazon
- Informal Systems on Formal Verification of Tendermint using Apalache and TLA+
- example English specification
- example code in TLA+